Evaluating Industry 4.0–Based Technological Strategies to Reduce the Impact of Risk on Organizational Performance under Conditions of Uncertainty: (Case Study: Lavan Oil Refinery)
Keywords:
Risk management, oil refinery, supply chain, Industry 4, sustainability, uncertaintyAbstract
This study aims to identify implementable strategies based on transformative Industry 4.0 technologies to eliminate or mitigate the effects of key supply chain risks and to improve organizational performance under conditions of uncertainty. Lavan Oil Refinery was selected as the case study. This topic is among the research priorities of Lavan Oil Refining Company for performance improvement. Accordingly, the research focuses on identifying financial, process-related, safety, environmental, and other factors affecting supply chain sustainability and seeks to propose solutions to reduce these risks. The study begins with a systematic literature review to identify existing risks and then employs the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Delphi method to identify and weight the refinery’s key risks. In the subsequent stage, the Intuitionistic Fuzzy DEMATEL technique is used to determine causal relationships among risks and to prioritize them. The findings indicate that 29 sub-criteria across five main dimensions—financial and economic risks, environmental risks, social risks, operational risks, and geopolitical risks—have the greatest importance and impact on refinery performance. Based on these results, Industry 4.0 technologies, including smart systems, the Industrial Internet of Things, big data analytics, and process digitalization solutions, are proposed to mitigate risk impacts and are evaluated using the Hanlon method. The results demonstrate that adopting Industry 4.0 technological solutions can enhance supply chain sustainability, improve organizational performance, and reduce the effects of internal and international uncertainties. By presenting an analytical framework for managing supply chain risks in refineries, this study provides a scientific and practical decision-making tool for managers and experts in the oil industry.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Farzad Azarnavid (Author); Ahmad Jafarnejad Choqoshi; Mohamadreza Taghizadeh Yazdi (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
