Developing an Integrated Fuzzy Model for Ranking the Factors Causing Delay-Related Claims in Industrial Projects

Maziyar Morshedi; Mohammad Ali Dashti Rahmatabadi

Authors

Maziyar Morshedi Department of Civil Engineering, Ya.C., Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran Author https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7380-1659
Mohammad Ali Dashti Rahmatabadi Department of Civil Engineering, Ya.C., Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3011-3316

Keywords:

Industrial Projects, Delay Claims, Claim Management, Risk Management, Fuzzy TOPSIS, AHP, Project Delay, Multi-Criteria Decision-Making

Abstract

This study aimed to develop an integrated fuzzy decision-making model for identifying and ranking the factors causing delay-related claims in industrial projects based on their probability of occurrence and effects on project time, cost, and quality. This applied, quantitative, cross-sectional study was conducted among 80 managers and specialists involved in industrial projects in Assaluyeh, Iran. Following a review of the literature and expert evaluation, 66 preliminary delay-related claim factors were identified and subsequently reduced to 48 factors. Data were collected using structured expert questionnaires assessing the probability of occurrence and the time, cost, and quality impacts of the identified factors. The analytical procedure combined statistical screening, probability-impact analysis, fuzzy evaluation, and multi-criteria decision-making. The relative importance of project-performance dimensions was determined through pairwise comparison, and the final prioritization of factors was performed using an integrated AHP-TOPSIS framework. Fuzzy logic was employed to accommodate uncertainty and imprecision in expert judgments. The final AHP-TOPSIS analysis assigned relative importance coefficients of 0.677, 0.674, and 0.655 to time, cost, and quality impacts, respectively. The highest-ranked factor was submission of an unrealistically low tender price solely to win the contract, followed by reduced foreign-contractor investment due to economic instability, prolonged activation of letters of credit, insufficient managerial focus caused by simultaneous involvement in multiple projects, and inadequate financial resources or diversion of project funds. Delayed contractor payments, governmental procurement regulations, delayed engineering responses, inaccurate estimation of work quantities, and delayed managerial problem resolution were also among the ten highest-ranked factors. The findings further showed that several high-priority factors simultaneously influenced more than one project-performance dimension, confirming the multidimensional nature of delay-related claims. Delay-related claims in industrial projects are primarily associated with interconnected contractual, financial, managerial, engineering, and procurement deficiencies, and the integrated fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS model provides a systematic mechanism for identifying and prioritizing these factors to support proactive risk and claim management.

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