Analysis of the Effects of Macroeconomic Variables and Ownership Structure on the Profitability of Iranian Banks with Emphasis on a Comparative Study with China

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of macroeconomic variables and ownership structure on the profitability of Iranian banks and to comparatively examine the results alongside selected Chinese banks. To this end, panel data from Iranian banks were employed, and fixed-effects panel regression models were applied. Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) were used as indicators of profitability, while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate and inflation rate (IR) were considered the primary macroeconomic variables, alongside bank-specific indicators (credit quality, bank size, financing structure, and liquidity). Furthermore, the effect of ownership structure (state-owned/non-state-owned) on bank profitability and resilience was analyzed, and the pattern of results was compared with Chinese banks. The findings indicate that economic growth has a positive and statistically significant effect on the profitability of Iranian banks, whereas high inflation, due to constraints in adjusting interest rates and inefficiencies in fully passing costs onto customers, exerts a negative and significant impact on profitability performance, particularly on ROE. From the perspective of ownership structure, non-state-owned banks in Iran exhibit, on average, higher profitability compared to state-owned banks. In comparison with China, although its banking system is predominantly state-owned, the corporate governance framework and development-oriented policies have provided greater resilience to shocks and more stable profitability for Chinese banks. The findings highlight the necessity of controlling inflation, improving credit quality, reforming bank financing structures, and enhancing corporate governance—particularly in state-owned banks—and can be utilized by monetary policymakers, banking regulators, and bank managers in designing policies and strategies aimed at improving profitability and financial stability.