Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Lessons from Renewable Energy Sector Professionals

Abstract

This study aims to explore the decision-making processes of professionals in the renewable energy sector under conditions of uncertainty. Through semi-structured interviews, the research investigates the types of uncertainties encountered, decision-making frameworks utilized, risk management strategies employed, external influences considered, and insights gained from both successful and failed projects. Twenty professionals from diverse roles within the renewable energy sector participated in semi-structured interviews. The interviews were conducted to gather qualitative data on participants' experiences, perspectives, and strategies related to decision-making under uncertainty. Theoretical saturation was achieved through iterative data analysis using NVivo software, focusing on identifying recurring themes and patterns in participants' responses. The study identified five main themes: types of uncertainties (policy, market, technological, environmental, financial), decision-making frameworks (risk assessment, scenario planning, stakeholder consultation, cost-benefit analysis, strategic planning, adaptive management), risk management strategies (diversification, insurance, hedging, collaboration, redundancy), external influences (policy and regulations, economic conditions, technological advances, social and cultural factors, environmental considerations), and success and failure stories. These findings highlight the complexity of decision-making in the renewable energy sector and underscore the importance of adaptive strategies and stakeholder engagement. Professionals in the renewable energy sector face multifaceted uncertainties that require robust decision-making frameworks and proactive risk management strategies. By understanding and effectively navigating these uncertainties, practitioners can enhance project outcomes and contribute to sustainable energy transitions. The study emphasizes the need for continuous adaptation, innovation, and strategic planning to address evolving challenges in the renewable energy landscape.