Typology of Damages Resulting from Land-Use Change in the Peripheral Zone of Karaj City toward Functional Development

Abstract

This study aimed to develop a typology of damages resulting from land-use change in the peripheral zone of Karaj and to evaluate their effects on the ecological, productive, recreational, and structural functions of the metropolitan fringe. This applied-developmental study used a descriptive-analytical mixed-methods design. The qualitative phase included semi-structured expert interviews and a Delphi process, while the quantitative phase employed a researcher-developed 41-item questionnaire covering physical-spatial, environmental-ecological, economic-land market, social-residential, security-legal, and psychological-behavioral damages. Thirty experts and senior professionals in urban management, land affairs, planning, and environmental management were selected purposively. Questionnaire reliability was confirmed by Cronbach’s alpha coefficients ranging from .815 to .921, with an overall alpha of .904. Data were analyzed using exploratory factor analysis, one-sample t tests, Friedman tests, Pearson correlations, ANOVA, multiple regression, cluster analysis, landscape metrics, SWOT, IFE/EFE, and QSPM. Exploratory factor analysis yielded four factors explaining 68.45% of total variance, with economic drivers accounting for the largest share (24.12%). Destruction and fragmentation of orchards were significantly above the theoretical midpoint, t(35) = 18.42, p < .001. Economic and land-market damages were the strongest predictor of land-use conversion intensity (β = .412, p < .001), and the regression model explained 63.2% of its variance. Sprawl was the dominant spatial pattern, M = 4.22, t(35) = 16.85, p < .001. Economic damage had the highest severity, M = 4.32, followed by ecological damage, M = 4.05. The four-type model identified speculative-physical, eco-degradative, social-security disorder, and behavioral-environmental disconnection. These types explained 65.4% of structural-functional disturbance, with the speculative-physical type exerting the strongest effect (β = .415, p < .001). IFE and EFE scores were 2.23 and 1.65, respectively, placing the peripheral zone in a defensive strategic position. Land-use change in Karaj is primarily driven by speculative-economic pressures and institutional weaknesses that generate physical fragmentation, ecological degradation, and disruption of peripheral functions; therefore, cadastral transparency, smart monitoring, legal deterrence, protection of agricultural cores, and containment of urban sprawl should constitute the principal management priorities.