Modeling the Drivers of Total Productive Maintenance Strategy through System Dynamics Simulation: A Case Study of the National Iranian South Oilfields Company

Abstract

This study aimed to develop and simulate a system dynamics model of the drivers of Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) strategy in oil production and to evaluate alternative policy scenarios for improving long-term maintenance performance at the National Iranian South Oilfields Company. The study used an applied, quantitative, exploratory system dynamics design. The statistical population comprised 570 employees, managers, and experts working at the headquarters and affiliated companies of the National Iranian South Oilfields Company in Ahvaz, Iran, from whom 291 participants were selected through simple random sampling. Data were collected using a researcher-developed questionnaire covering the principal drivers of TPM strategy. Exploratory factor analysis was used to refine the indicators and identify the major latent dimensions. The resulting variables were incorporated into a system dynamics model developed in Vensim. The model included political factors, investment-policy factors, upstream capital-resource provision, technological factors, maintenance characteristics, and weakening factors. Model verification included structural assessment, parameter validation, extreme-condition testing, behavioral validation, stability testing, and the Vensim Check Model procedure. The baseline simulation showed that the TPM strategy index increased from 10.00 to a peak of approximately 128.94 around year 9.25, followed by a sustained decline to 68.73 at year 20. All nine intervention scenarios improved the final value relative to the baseline. The largest effects were observed for intermediate financing, which increased the final value to 197.59 (+128.85 units), debt-based financing to 177.07 (+108.33 units), and reserve-based financing to 138.31 (+69.58 units). Improvement in financing assessment increased the value to 121.55 (+52.82 units), while reduction of unfavorable monetary policies increased it to 106.41 (+37.68 units). Smaller improvements were observed for R&D policy, maintenance-resource diversification, technology-entry policy, and development of extraction and production structures. The findings indicate that TPM performance in oil production is generated by interacting financial, technological, organizational, political, and maintenance-related feedback mechanisms, with financing structures representing the strongest strategic leverage points for sustaining long-term improvement.