Development of Strategic Scenarios for Employment Growth in the Agricultural Sector Using a Foresight Analysis
Keywords:
Scenario development, employment promotion, strategy, foresight approach, agricultureAbstract
The purpose of the present study was to develop strategic scenarios for promoting employment in the agricultural sector using a foresight analysis. The required data were collected through a Delphi questionnaire, and critical drivers influencing employment-development strategies in the agricultural sector were identified based on the views of experts and specialists. Attention to these drivers and their integration into agricultural development strategies through foresight analysis can lead to the creation of an enabling environment for sustainable employment and higher productivity in this sector. For this purpose, the cross-impact matrix analysis method was employed. Among the influential drivers, 22 drivers were identified as the most critical: market and product pricing, infrastructure and technology, training and consultancy, development of collaborations, risk management and market monitoring, facilities and services, technological innovations, online platforms, advanced technologies, intelligent systems, product quality management, environmental research, development of information systems, climate change and its impacts, sustainable use of resources, awareness-raising and education, natural resource management, pollution reduction and quality protection, training and awareness-raising, promotion of agricultural culture and identity, cultural activities and festivals, economic and livelihood development, and cultural development and promotion. Using the identified drivers, the scenario space was constructed, and five scenarios with the highest probability of occurrence were identified and developed. Among them, the first scenario, with a probability of 66 percent, was selected as the most likely scenario. According to the findings, these elements interact with one another and collectively create a dynamic ecosystem for fostering employment in the agricultural sector. By emphasizing foresight, effective strategies can be designed that respond appropriately to future developments and pave the way for improvement and sustainable development in this sector.
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