Modeling the Impact of Urban Climate on Urban Resilience in Sari: The Mediating Role of Social Participation and Institutional Trust

Parichehr  Mesri Alamdari; Shahram Mollania Jelodar; Seyyed Hassan  Rasouli

Authors

Parichehr Mesri Alamdari Assistant Professor, Department of Geography - Climatology, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran Author https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3854-4316
Shahram Mollania Jelodar Assistant Professor, Department of Social Sciences, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran https://orcid.org/0009-0002-9481-9107
Seyyed Hassan Rasouli Ph.D., Department of Geography and Urban Planning, CT.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran Author https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9067-2043

Keywords:

urban resilience, urban climate, social participation, institutional trust, Sari City

Abstract

Climate change has increasingly transformed urban resilience into a key strategy in urban planning. The present study aimed to model the impact of urban climate on urban resilience in Sari, with the mediating role of social participation and institutional trust. In terms of purpose, this study was applied, and in terms of nature, it employed a descriptive-correlational design. The study was conducted during the first half of 2026 among 410 citizens aged 20–65 years in Sari, selected through multistage cluster random sampling. Data were collected using a researcher-developed questionnaire, whose reliability was confirmed with a Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of 0.71. The findings from stepwise regression analysis showed that the research model explained a total of 44% of the variance in urban resilience. Social participation (β = 0.33) and institutional trust (β = 0.30) were the strongest positive predictors of resilience, while among the urban climate components, only urban humidity and precipitation (β = -0.21) had a significant direct effect. Furthermore, the mediating roles of social participation and institutional trust were confirmed at the 95% confidence level. The results indicate that urban resilience in Sari, rather than being merely a function of physical infrastructure, is largely the outcome of social capacities and institutional effectiveness. Enhancing urban resilience therefore requires the institutionalization of strategic participation and the rebuilding of public trust.

References

Aghaei Azad, A., Melania Jaloudar, S., & Rasouli, S. H. (2025). A Sociological Study of the Relationship between Social Capital and Citizen Participation in the Rehabilitation of Deteriorated Urban Fabrics: A Case Study of District 4 of Sari Municipality. Urban Social Geography, 12(2), 261-277. https://doi.org/10.22103/jusg.2025.2169

Ahangari, N. (2025). Futures Studies of Agile City Development toward Urban Resilience and Dynamism in Tehran Metropolis. Scientific Journal of Space and Place Research in the City, 9(35), 75-95. https://doi.org/10.22034/jspr.2025.2069072.1155

Ahmadi, H., Amanpour, S., & Babaei Morad, B. (2025). Factors Affecting the Resilience of Urban Infrastructure in Ahvaz within the Framework of Smart City Principles. 40(4), 329-338. https://doi.org/10.58209/geores.40.4.329

Ahmadzadeh, T., Rezaei, P., & Zeinolabedin Amoughin, Y. (2025). Tourism Climate of Ardabil Province under a Climate Change Scenario. Quarterly Journal of Geography and Environmental Studies, 14(53), 56-75. https://doi.org/10.71740/ges.2025.1192387

Akbari, T., Rezaei, M., & Azadkhani, P. (2024). A Meta-Synthesis of Nomadic Thought in Interpreting the Urban Social Resilience Model. Geography and Development, 22(76), 93-126. https://doi.org/10.22111/GDIJ.2024.42481.3405

Azzahra, F., Sulandjari, K., Mariyani, S., Fikri, M. R. A., & Mufidah, R. (2026). Building Community Resilience to Urban Sprawl through Social Capital and Innovation Adoption in Peri-Urban Agricultural Communities of West Java Indonesia. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8635261/v1

Bagheri, R., Nouhegar, A., Salehi, E., & Alavi Naeini, A. (2025). Examining the Impact of the Climate Change Crisis on Environmental Behaviors and Sustainable Urban Development: The Case of Drought in Isfahan. Quarterly Journal of Human Geography Research, 57(4), 77-96. https://doi.org/10.22059/jhgr.2026.386782.1008768

Cao, H. (2023). Urban Resilience: Concept, Influencing Factors and Improvement. Frontiers in Business, Economics and Management, 9(1), 343-346. https://doi.org/10.54097/fbem.v9i1.8777

Davari Zarnaghi, R., & Kalantari, M. (2024). A Meta-Analysis of Climate Change and Urban Resilience Research in Iran. Urban Space and Social Life, 3(10), 33-52. https://doi.org/10.22034/jprd.2024.62414.1104

Farahani, P., Rezaeian, S., Zaeimdar, M., & Jozi, S. A. (2024). Presenting a Conceptual Model of Urban Resilience against Earthquakes: A Case Study of Bam. Quarterly Journal of Human and Environment(69), 127-141.

Farajpour, A., Sho'leh, M., Lotfi, S., & Izadi, H. (2025). Rethinking Urban Resilience through Smart City Components: A Case Study of Sadra New City. Geographical Spatial Planning, 15(1), 179-197. https://doi.org/10.30488/GPS.2025.479848.3785

Haseli, S., Pourkhabaz, H., & Azmi, A. (2024). Assessment of Urban Resilience against Earthquakes: A Case Study of Islamabad-e Gharb. Journal of Geography and Urban Space Development, 11(2), 139-159. https://doi.org/10.22067/JGUSD.2023.78320.1241

Hossein Dousti, S., Sattar Pour, T., Habibzadeh, A., Salmanian, A., & Molaeian, M. (2023). Resilience in Urban Management: A Key Component for a Smart City. Quarterly Journal of New Research in Smart City, 2(1), 31-39.

Irani, M., & Rahnamayiezekavat, P. (2021). An Overview of Urban Resilience: Dimensions, Components, and Approaches. Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Administratio Locorum, 20(4), 305-322. https://doi.org/10.31648/aspal.7054

Jamali, A., Robati, M., Nikoomaram, H., Farsad, F., & Aghamohammadi, H. (2023). Urban Resilience and Climate Change: Developing a Multidimensional Index to Adapt against Climate Change in the Iranian Capital City of Tehran. Urban Science, 7(1), 7. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbanSci7010007

Kameli, M., & Hosseini Amiri, H. (2026). Analyzing the Relationship between Urban Shelter Design Criteria and Neighborhood Resilience from the Perspective of Passive Defense: A Case Study of Qom. Scientific Journal of Space and Place Research in the City, 10(38), 5-22. https://doi.org/10.22034/jspr.2026.2079748.1215

Karimi Qotb, A., & Zangiabadi, A. (2025). A Comparative Assessment of the Resilience of New Urban Settlements against Earthquake Risk: A Case Study of the Greater Isfahan Urban Region. Journal of Applied Research in Geographical Sciences, 25(77), 308-329. https://doi.org/10.61186/jgs.25.77.14

Khoshtarsah Langeroudi, N., Tabibian, M., & Bigdeli Rad, V. (2025). Integrated Model of Sustainable Development and Urban Resilience in the Physical Development of Rudsar City. Geographical Researches, 40(3), 231-242. https://doi.org/10.22034/gr.2025.61901

Kiasat, S., & Ilanlou, M. (2024). Climate Change and Adaptation in Urban Communities: The Case of Japan. Scientific Quarterly of Disaster Prevention and Management Knowledge, 14(4), 460-477. https://doi.org/10.32598/DMKP.14.4.850.1

Kong, L., Mu, X., Hu, G., & Zhang, Z. (2022). The Application of Resilience Theory in Urban Development: A Literature Review. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(33), 49651-49671. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-20597-4

Majnuni Toutakhaneh, A., Soleimani, A., Abizadeh, S., & Ahmadi, T. (2023). Examining and Analyzing the Role of Citizen Participation in Enhancing Urban Resilience: A Case Study of Bonab. Scientific Quarterly of Urban Economics and Management, 11(3), 37-57.

Mansouri Etminan, A., Ziari, K., & Hosseini, A. (2025). An Analysis of the Resilience of Urban Areas of Mashhad in the Face of Water Insecurity. 12(2), 65-95. https://doi.org/10.22080/usfs.2024.27510.2459

Melania Jaloudar, S. (2025). Analyzing the Role-Playing Process of Handicrafts in Sustainable Tourism Development: A Case Study of Imam Reza and Mal Majd al-Din Markets in Sari. Quarterly Journal of Human Geography Research, 5(4), 97-110. https://doi.org/10.22059/jhgr.2026.401184.1008836

Mesri Alamdari, P., & Rasouli, S. H. (2021). Analysis of the Impact of Urban Climate Changes on the Spatial Distribution of Population with Emphasis on Heat Islands: A Case Study of Sari. Quarterly Journal of Geography and Planning, University of Tabriz, 25(77). https://doi.org/10.22034/gp.2021.41734.2703

Mirzajani Naneh Karan, M. (2026). Assessment of Urban Seismic Resilience: A Case Study of Tabriz Metropolis. Spatial Planning, 16(1), 37-80. https://doi.org/10.22108/sppl.2025.145044.1842

Mohammadpour, Z., Nekouei, M. A., & Zakeri Khatir, H. (2025). Developing a Hybrid Resilience Model for the Urban Water Supply Network: A Case Study of Babol. Passive Defense, 15(2), 99-111.

Mousavi, M., Saeidpour, S., Rasouli, M., & Abdi, N. (2023). An Analysis of Resilience in Urban Housing: A Case Study of Saqqez. Scientific Journal of Urban Ecology Research, 14(4), 159-176. https://doi.org/10.30473/grup.2022.52932.2513

Norouzi, A., & Mohammadi, M. (2025). Presenting a Hybrid Deep Learning-Based Method for Predicting the Universal Thermal Climate Index in Urban Outdoor Space. Scientific Journal of Urban Environmental Management, 3(3), 63-77. https://doi.org/10.48306/juem.2025.544353.1094

Pasandideh Talemi, B., Hafez Rezazadeh, M., & Karimian Bostani, M. (2024). Assessment and Evaluation of the Physical Resilience of Urban Spaces against Earthquakes: A Case Study of Mashhad. Quarterly Journal of Geographical Studies of Mountainous Areas, 5(4), 155-176. https://doi.org/10.22034/gsma.2025.2050785.1053

Pirasteh, A., Adeli, Z., & Yazdanpanah Shahabadi, M. R. (2026). Assessment of the Current Climatic Resilience of Urban Neighborhoods: A Case Study of Neighborhoods in District 18 of Tehran. Housing and Rural Environment, 45(193), 179-197. https://doi.org/10.22034/45.193.179

Prastyo, R. E., Wisadirana, D., Rozuli, A. I., & Hakim, M. L. (2024). Social Capital's Impact on Indonesia's Urban and Rural Areas. Journal of Law and Sustainable Development, 12(1), e2714. https://doi.org/10.55908/sdgs.v12i1.2714

Rafiei, G., Maleki, A., Shahbazi, Y., & Molaei, A. (2024). A Review of the Relationship between Urban Resilience and Epidemic Diseases. Urban Design Discourse, 5(1), 31-51.

Saeidi, J. (2024). Explaining the Status of Urban Resilience Drivers in Border Communities: Case Studies of Abadan and Khorramshahr. Border Studies Research Journal, 12(1), 97-121. https://doi.org/10.22034/BSS.2024.1278785.1510

Shamsoddini, A., Melania Jaloudar, S., & Rasouli, S. H. (2026). Explaining Factors Affecting Entrepreneurship and Employment Creation in the Peri-Urban Areas of Sari: A Case Study of Rural Markets in Sari. Journal of Peri-Urban Space Development, 8(1), 123-148. https://doi.org/10.22034/jpusd.2026.558587.1381

Teymi, N., Sho'leh, M., Lotfi, S., & Sadeghi, A. (2025). Assessing the Effects of Urban Green Infrastructure with a Climate-Sensitive Design Approach: A Case Study of Gol-Mohammadi Neighborhood in Isfahan. Urban Planning Knowledge, 9(2), 55-77. https://doi.org/10.22124/UPK.2025.29226.1992

Veisi Nabi Kandi, B., Hami, A., Valizadeh Kamran, K., & Emami Namin, F. (2024). Assessing the Impact of Urban Agriculture on Increasing the Resilience of Densely Populated Urban Areas: A Comprehensive Approach Based on Carbon Storage and Sequestration. Quarterly Journal of Physical Geography Research, 56(3), 19-33. https://doi.org/10.22059/jphgr.2024.381297.1007835

Wieszczeczynska, K. A., Tollin, N., & Spaliviero, M. (2024). Capacity Building within Urban Climate Resilience in the Global South - A Literature Review. Frontiers in Sustainable Cities, 6, 1380936. https://doi.org/10.3389/frsc.2024.1380936